African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
The Situation in Abyei: Deteriorating Security, Diplomatic Obstruction, and the Limits of PSC Authority
The PSC 8 July session on Abyei will be the first Council engagement with the situation in the disputed territory since the 1108th session of September 2022 — a gap of nearly four years that has allowed the security situation to deteriorate significantly in the absence of structured multilateral attention.
The Accra III Forum on Unconstitutional Changes of Government: Youth Inclusion and the Failure of Continental Norms
The Third Accra Reflection Forum on UCG, convening on 3 and 4 July in Accra, Ghana, under the theme Youth Inclusion for African Stability, takes place in a normative environment that its own convening history has failed to improve.
Uganda's PSC Chairpersonship: Institutional Context and Programme Architecture
Uganda assumes PSC chairpersonship for July 2026 with a programme of work that is structurally ambitious relative to the Council's demonstrated capacity for decisive institutional action.
The AU Early Warning Trigger Mechanism: Bridging the Intelligence-Action Gap
The 8 July informal consultation on the proposed AU Model on Trigger Mechanism for Early Warning and Early Action addresses the most chronic and consequential structural failure in the AU peace and security architecture: the persistent gap between the receipt of early warning information about emerging conflicts and the timely execution of preventive action by the PSC.
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Sudan: El Obeid, Drone Warfare and the Collapse of Civilian Protection
Sudan has entered the most dangerous phase of its war since fighting began in April 2023. The conflict between SAF and RSF has become a wider national crisis marked by state fragmentation, systematic violence against civilians, drone attacks on civilian infrastructure, the weaponisation of humanitarian access and the weakening of the institutions that once held the Sudanese state together.
African Ports: China, the Emirates and Europe Compete for Africa's Maritime Gateways
Africa's ports have become one of the most consequential theatres of global infrastructure competition in the twenty-first century. The contest now underway across the continent's maritime façades is not principally about trade facilitation or development financing.
Canada-Africa Business Conference in Lagos: Trade Diplomacy, Immigration Integrity, and the Unanswered Security Questions
The 6th Canada-Africa Business Conference opening in Lagos on 24 June 2026 arrives at a moment of genuine strategic recalibration in Canada's posture toward the African continent.
Central African Republic: Security Gains Remain Fragile as MINUSCA Enters a Risky Transition Phase
CAR is at an inflection point. The country has recorded measurable stabilisation gains over the past eighteen months — completed elections, partial disarmament progress, and renewed armed-group participation in the peace framework.
Eastern DRC: MONUSCO Constraints, Humanitarian Access and Ebola as a Security Multiplier
Eastern DRC is facing overlapping security, humanitarian and public health emergencies. MONUSCO remains the only large international civilian-protection instrument in the theatre, but its operational capacity has been weakened by financial constraints, movement restrictions, legitimacy erosion and an increasingly complex conflict environment.
Eastern DRC: Armed Group Fragmentation, Mineral Revenues and the Conflict Economy
The eastern DRC crisis is not a single conflict. It is an ecosystem of conflicts sustained by distinct mobilisation logics, overlapping armed actors and a profitable conflict economy. M23/AFC, the ADF, CODECO, FARDC-aligned militias and local armed networks do not all respond to the same incentives, and many are only partially connected to the diplomatic processes designed to address the crisis.
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