African Security Analysis
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Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Security Updates
Gulf of Guinea Gas Integration Accelerates
Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea have signed a unitization agreement to jointly develop the cross-border Yoyo-Yolanda gas fields, unlocking an estimated 2.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas.
West Africa Trade Corridors Under Fire
The main trade corridor linking Senegal (Port of Dakar) to Mali is undergoing a major disruption driven by escalating insecurity in western Mali—particularly in the Kayes region near the Senegalese border.
Early Warning: Kisangani and the Northern Corridor
Between 31 January and 2 February, Kisangani’s Bangboka airport area was struck by multiple explosive-laden drones, in an incident that drew national attention because it suggested the conflict’s reach could extend well beyond the usual eastern frontlines.
Renewed Fighting in Tigray Signals the Fragility of the Post-Pretoria Order
Less than three years after the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, northern Ethiopia is once again experiencing a deterioration in security conditions.
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Russia’s Su-57 Enters North Africa
Open-source imagery circulating online strongly suggests that Algeria has become the first foreign country to receive and operate Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter.
Western Sahara – Madrid Closed-Door Meeting: U.S. Reassertion of Control through Algeria
The closed-door meeting held on 8 February at the U.S. Embassy in Madrid, bringing together Morocco, Algeria, the Polisario Front, and Mauritania under U.S. sponsorship, appears aimed at reactivating a stalled diplomatic track on Western Sahara.
Access on Request | Islamic State Strikes a Strategic Symbol by Targeting Niamey Airport
Provides an in-depth strategic analysis of the Islamic State attack on Niamey’s international airport and military air base – one of the most sensitive symbols of Nigerien state sovereignty.
Cabinda: Unilateral Declaration of Independence and The Strategic Fault Lines of Angola’s Petro-State
The unilateral proclamation of independence of Cabinda by the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC) marks a significant escalation in one of Africa’s longest-running, yet often sidelined, sovereignty disputes.
A U.S. Envoy in Bamako to Test the Recalibration of Bilateral Relations
In early February, a senior official from the United States Department of State conducted an official visit to Bamako, signalling Washington’s intent to cautiously re-engage with Mali amid a rapidly evolving regional and geopolitical landscape.
Mineral Sovereignty, Economic Diplomacy, and Geopolitical Reconfiguration Around Congolese Gold
After more than two years of largely discreet negotiations, the DRC is moving toward a significant diplomatic and economic engagement with the Gulf. On Monday, 2 February, President Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo met in Abu Dhabi with Emir Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at Qasr Al Watan, amid preparations to sign a CEPA between the DRC and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
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