African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
After Windhoek+25: Can the Swakopmund Process Turn a Quarter-Century of WPS Declarations into Accountable Delivery?
On 9 and 10 September the PSC convenes in Cotonou for the High-Level Ministerial Seminar on Women, Peace and Security — the Swakopmund Process, institutionalised at the inaugural March 2024 ministerial meeting as a biennial, rotational platform for the PSC to engage local, national, regional and continental actors on WPS.
Sudan: Sanctions Renewal Meets a Drone War
Two clocks are running on Sudan at the Security Council. The 1591 sanctions regime — the targeted measures and the Darfur arms embargo — expires on 12 September, and the Panel of Experts mandate expires on 12 October.
Sudan: The Consolidation of Partition
Sudan's war is increasingly evolving from a contest for control of one state into the construction of two rival territorial and administrative orders. SAF hold the centre, east, and the Red Sea seat of government at Port Sudan.
The Central Sahel
The central Sahel has crossed a threshold that the vocabulary of "counter-terrorism" no longer captures. Al-Qaeda's regional affiliate, JNIM, and the ISSP now hold, between them, more territory than at any point since the 2012 Malian collapse — and JNIM has moved beyond attrition warfare into the deliberate substitution of the state, pairing military pressure with taxation, dispute adjudication, and service provision in the zones it controls.
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Central African Republic After Touadéra’s Re-Election
CAR has entered a consequential transition phase. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s re-election has consolidated political authority in Bangui, while the international security architecture that has underpinned the country for more than a decade is moving toward a debate over consolidation, task handover and eventual drawdown.
Children in Armed Conflict – Africa’s Enforcement and Reintegration Gap
The African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) convened on 2 September 2026 to consider the protection of children in armed conflict, with particular attention to child soldiers and the framework established by UN Security Council Resolution 1612.
DRC: The Ground War Outpaces the Diplomacy
The UNSC meets on the DRC in September against a deteriorating security environment in the east despite sustained diplomatic engagement across three principal tracks: the US-brokered Washington Accords between Kinshasa and Kigali, the Qatar-led Doha process between the Congolese government and the Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23), and the wider International Contact Group framework.
South Sudan – A Fixed Election Date on a Collapsing Agreement: Elections as Deadline, Not Destination
South Sudan now has a fixed election date but remains far from meeting many of the political, administrative, security and humanitarian conditions required for a credible national vote.
Libya – The Oil-for-Unity Bargain: A US-Brokered Elite Settlement, the UN Framework, and the Choice Facing the Security Council
Libya's five-year institutional stalemate is being acted upon by a new variable: a reported United States mediation effort centred on a specific redistribution of executive power.
Russia's Guinea-Bissau Opening: Emerging Strategic Value on the Atlantic–Sahel Axis
Guinea-Bissau is an emerging node of Russian interest, not a Russian strategic hub. The evidence warrants monitoring possible convergence among diplomacy, mineral investment, infrastructure and Sahel connectivity; it does not show that an integrated Atlantic–Sahel military-logistics corridor exists or has been agreed.
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