African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
Guinea’s New Government and the Structural Test of Mining-Led Expansion
Guinea has entered a new phase following the conclusion of elections that formalize the transition initiated after the September 2021 removal of President Alpha Condé. With President Mamadi Doumbouya consolidating authority and Prime Minister Amadou Bah Oury forming a new cabinet on February 4, 2026, the administration’s immediate task is clear: translate strong extractive-sector expansion into tangible improvements in living standards.
South Africa Signs CAEPA With China and Accedes to AfrEximBank
Pretoria’s recent economic announcements include (1) the signing of the China–Africa Economic Partnership Agreement (CAEPA) in Beijing on 6 February, and (2) formal accession to AfrEximBank on 4 February, alongside an $8 billion country programme.
Gulf of Guinea Gas Integration Accelerates
Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea have signed a unitization agreement to jointly develop the cross-border Yoyo-Yolanda gas fields, unlocking an estimated 2.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas.
West Africa Trade Corridors Under Fire
The main trade corridor linking Senegal (Port of Dakar) to Mali is undergoing a major disruption driven by escalating insecurity in western Mali—particularly in the Kayes region near the Senegalese border.
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Nigeria Finalizes $1.4 Billion Italian Airpower Acquisition
Nigeria has secured a $1.4 billion defence agreement with Italian aerospace firm Leonardo for the acquisition of approximately 24 M-346FA light combat aircraft and 10 AW-109 attack helicopters. Deliveries are scheduled throughout 2026.
Sudan Conflict Escalation Brief
The UK has imposed fresh sanctions on senior figures from both the SAF and the RSF, marking one of the clearest external acknowledgments yet that Sudan’s war is spiralling beyond conventional containment.
Horn of Africa Early Warning Report
The latest exchange between Ethiopia and Eritrea marks a dangerous shift from political tension to structured confrontation.
Diplomatic Friction After Eswatini Hosts Madagascar’s Ousted President
Relations between Eswatini and Madagascar’s military authorities have entered a tense phase following Eswatini’s decision to host ousted Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina last week.
Namibia Draws a Red Line: Sovereignty First in Offshore Oil Control
Namibia’s decision to refuse recognition of a major offshore stake acquisition by TotalEnergies and Petrobras signals a defining moment in the country’s emerging oil era. The government has declared the transaction invalid, citing failure to follow legally required approval procedures.
External Security Partnerships and Internal Counter-Insurgency Momentum
Recent developments in Somalia reflect a dual-track security dynamic: the consolidation of external military partnerships, notably with Saudi Arabia, aimed at long-term security sector reform; and
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