Situation Reports

The ASA Situation Reports™ provide updates on key developments across the African continent. While primarily focused on Security, they also cover Political, Social and Economic Events, ensuring you'll stay informed on the most important developments.

ASA Situation Reports™

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Uganda, DRC 7 mars 2025 20:12

Wazalendo Militias in Ituri Shift Focus to Illegal Mining, Neglecting Fight Against ADF

Initially deployed alongside the FARDC and the Ugandan army to combat the ADF, many Wazalendo militiamen have abandoned their security duties. Instead, they have turned their attention to illegal mining operations in Mambasa territory, Ituri province.

Somalia 7 mars 2025 10:47

Transition, Tensions, and Al-Shabaab Resilience in Somalia - March 2025

Somalia’s security situation in early 2025 remains complex and volatile, characterized by ongoing conflict between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), its allied forces, and the Al-Shabaab militant group, alongside emerging regional tensions and a transitioning international security presence.

Libya, Chad, Sudan, Central African Republic, Guinea 24 feb. 2025 16:13

Great Power Rivalry in North Africa

Russia is strengthening its military presence in eastern Libya, particularly in areas controlled by Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Unlike in other African regions, Haftar is paid by the Russians to use these facilities, which serve as gateways to Chad and Sudan—two crucial areas for Russia amid the ongoing Sudanese civil war.

DRC, Chad 23 feb. 2025 16:01

DRC Seeks Military Assistance from Chad to Counter M23 Rebel Advances

Didier Mazenga, the Minister of Regional Integration and Francophonie for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and special envoy of President Félix Tshisekedi, visited Chad on Tuesday, February 18th.

Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somaliland 22 feb. 2025 15:55

Russia’s Naval Base in Sudan: Back on Track Again?

The Russian naval base in Sudan appears to be moving forward. On February 12, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssif announced during his visit to Moscow that the long-discussed project was back on track.

Cameroon 21 feb. 2025 15:51

Russia's Role in Cameroon's 2025 Presidential Election

With Cameroon’s presidential election set for October 2025, foreign embassies in Yaoundé are actively positioning themselves for potential political changes.

DRC, Burundi 19 feb. 2025 18:53

M23 Advances on Bukavu: A Shifting Military Landscape

On Friday, February 14, 2025, the M23 outmanoeuvred the FARDC/Wazalendo and the Burundian army, entering Katana at dawn, near Kavumu and Bukavu airport. Following the "liberation" of the city, they held a press conference.

DRC 16 feb. 2025 22:26

Félix Tshisekedi’s Departure from Kinshasa Sparks Speculation

The sudden departure of President Félix Tshisekedi from Kinshasa has ignited widespread speculation in the Congolese capital. Did he leave or not? That question looms over the city.

DRC, Rwanda 15 feb. 2025 17:57

DRC Close Congolese Airspace for Rwanda

On Tuesday, February 11, 2025, the Congolese government escalated tensions between the DRC and Rwanda by banning all Rwandan-registered or Rwandan-based aircraft from flying over its territory. This decision comes amid deteriorating diplomatic relations and ongoing armed conflict between the two nations.

Mali, Niger 12 feb. 2025 11:16

Violence in Mali – IEDs are used more frequently by Jihadists groups

On Friday, February 7, 2025, a devastating ambush struck Mali as jihadists attacked a civilian convoy escorted by the Malian army and Wagner forces. The assault occurred between the cities of Gao and Ansongo, a region long plagued by violence and instability. The attack resulted in over fifty fatalities, including both civilians and military personnel, and left many others injured. The wounded were transported to Gao for urgent medical care.

DRC, Rwanda, Burundi 10 feb. 2025 10:20

Brief Analysis on the EAC and SADC Summit – February 8, 2025, by ASA

The joint summit of the EAC and the SADC, held in Dar es Salaam on February 8, reaffirmed its call for the withdrawal of uninvited foreign armed forces from the DRC. The summit stressed the importance of respecting the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

DRC 7 feb. 2025 16:33

Security and Humanitarian Crisis in Bukavu

According to analyses by the INDEPENDENT GROUP of CONGOLESE EXPERTS IN POLITICS CONTEXT AND GEO-STRATEGY (GIE), fighting persists along the Nyabibwe–Lushebere–Nyamukubi axis, which is now under M23 control. This has triggered widespread panic in surrounding areas, including Rambira, Muhongoza, Ihusi, Kabamba, and Katana. Meanwhile, the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) are retreating in disorder toward Kabamba, Katana-Center, Kavumu, and Bukavu, leading to looting and extortion due to a lack of command control.

Sudan 5 feb. 2025 11:53

Sudanese army may soon reclaim control of Khartoum

Since the liberation of Wad-Madani in central Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have collapsed and are on the brink of losing the capital. A year ago, the RSF, a paramilitary militia from Darfur, took control of Wad Madani and the fertile Jezira region, encircling Sennar and reaching the Ethiopian border in June.

DRC 5 feb. 2025 11:47

Escalating Crisis in Eastern DR

Following the urgent security measures implemented by MONUSCO, including the relocation of non-essential personnel from Goma to Entebbe in Uganda and Kinshasa, as well as the demonstrations recorded in Kinshasa last week after the capture of the strategic city of Goma by the M23 armed group, several embassies have advised their nationals to exercise caution

DRC, Rwanda, Uganda 3 feb. 2025 21:21

The Role of Uganda in the Recent M23 Insurrection in Eastern DRC

Facing the advance of the M23 towards Uganda’s zone of influence in eastern DRC, Kampala oscillates between fear and rapprochement with the M23. The resurgence of the March 23 Movement occurred following a violation of Rwanda’s zone of influence in eastern DRC.

DRC, Rwanda 3 feb. 2025 21:16

The Rise of Major General Evariste in North Kivu

The advance of the M23 in South Kivu is exacerbating an already critical situation. In response, Albert Foka Mike, the provincial Minister of the Interior for South Kivu, has called on former soldiers, combatants, and volunteers to join the FARDC to combat the M23.

Somalia 1 feb. 2025 22:59

Inside the Daesh Khawarij Group: Structure, Operations, and Future Plans

The Daesh Khawarij Group is a militant organization operating primarily in Puntland, Somalia. Led by Abdiqadir Muumin, the group has a structured leadership, a growing membership, and ambitious plans for expansion. Here’s a closer look at their operations, organizational structure, and future strategies.

Somalia 1 feb. 2025 20:16

Security Situation in Somalia and the Impact of Weak Governance and Reduced International Aid

Somalia continues to face profound challenges in security, governance, and socioeconomic development. Despite ongoing efforts by Somali authorities and international partners, the country remains plagued by instability, weak government institutions, and the enduring threat of terrorism, particularly from Al-Shabaab. The suspension of international donor support, including decisions made during the Trump administration, has exacerbated the risks faced by the Somali population.

Tanzania, Mozambique, DRC 1 feb. 2025 10:42

Tanzania has become vulnerable to extremist activities

The Islamic State (IS) has increasingly extended its influence into East Africa, with Tanzania experiencing notable security challenges linked to this expansion. Tanzania's geographical proximity to conflict zones in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has heightened its vulnerability to extremist activities.

DRC, Rwanda, Uganda 28 jan. 2025 12:01

Security Situation in North Kivu, DRC

The situation in North Kivu continues to deteriorate. Clashes between the M23 rebels and the FARDC escalated along the Goma-Sake axis.

Burkina Faso, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger 23 jan. 2025 09:03

Security Situation West Africa 2024

Burkina Faso continues to face severe security challenges characterized by extremist violence, improvised explosive device (IED) attacks, and assaults on security forces and Volontaires pour la Défense de la Patrie (VDPs). Ongoing clashes between Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISSP) have further destabilized the nation, displacing vulnerable populations.

Guinea 15 jan. 2025 08:46

Guinea’s Transition Timeline Expired

Guinea’s transition timeline ended on December 31 without clear plans for the next steps or a schedule for elections. Opposition groups and civil society organizations announced they no longer recognize the transitional government. Protests in early January turned violent, with clashes between demonstrators and security forces, signaling increasing instability. If restrictions on political parties persist or worsen, protests are expected to grow, potentially uniting multiple grievances.

DRC, Uganda, South Sudan 7 jan. 2025 08:45

Eastern DRC Situation Report (Nov 2024)

• OPERATIONAL SITUATION • SECURITY SITUATION • BORDER SITUATION • SOCIO-HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger 2 jan. 2025 08:47

Situation Report: Humanitarian Crisis in the Sahel (Nov 2024)

The Sahel region is experiencing one of the most severe and rapidly growing humanitarian crises globally. Armed conflicts, climate change, and political instability have combined to displace millions, disrupt essential services, and exacerbate food insecurity.

Mali 1 jan. 2025 08:46

Geopolitical and Strategic Analysis of the Evolution of the Situation in Mali

The crisis in Mali has recently taken a new turn with the reorganization of armed groups in the North. Under the leadership of Bilal Ag Acherif, a key figure in the Tuareg rebellions, the Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA) has emerged from the merger of movements previously united under the Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA). This regrouping signifies a desire to consolidate forces to defend the interests of the northern populations amidst the escalating conflict with the Malian state and its allies, notably the African Corps (former Wagner Group).

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We operate in almost all countries in Africa, including high-risk environments, monitoring and analyze ongoing conflicts, the hotspots and the potential upcoming threats on the continent. Every day. Around the clock.