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Updates
Preliminary Situation Report: AFC/M23 Capture of Uvira, South Kivu
Armed elements of the AFC/M23 coalition have taken control of Uvira in South Kivu following a short but decisive sequence of operations. The pattern observed mirrors, with striking similarity, the approach previously used during the fall of Bukavu.
AES–Nigeria: Emergency Landing of Nigerian Military Aircraft Sparks New Airspace Tensions in the Sahel
The diplomatic confrontation between the AES — Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — and Nigeria escalated sharply following the unannounced landing of a Nigerian Air Force C-130 in Burkina Faso. What Abuja describes as a routine “technical emergency” has been interpreted by the AES as a serious breach of sovereign airspace in a region already polarized by military realignments, contested air control, and deep strategic distrust.
Fall of Uvira: Operational Collapse, Regional Repercussions, and New Strategic Axes for the AFC/M23 Advance
As African Security Analysis (ASA) had forecast*, Uvira fell during the night of 9 December 2025 into the hands of the AFC/M23 after a disorderly retreat by FARDC, Wazalendo militias, and Burundian forces.
Benin After the Failed Putsch: Stability Exposed, System Under Stress
Benin has averted, for now, a military takeover. But the attempted seizure of power by Lieutenant-Colonel Tigri has shattered the illusion of a stable democratic outlier on the Gulf of Guinea.
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