Brief Analysis on the EAC and SADC Summit – February 8, 2025, by ASA

The joint summit of the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), held in Dar es Salaam on February 8, reaffirmed its call for the withdrawal of uninvited foreign armed forces from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The summit stressed the importance of respecting the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Kinshasa’s current strategy relies heavily on international support, with the ideal goal of securing sanctions against Kigali and forcing the withdrawal of the M23 from Goma. If achieving both proves impossible, Kinshasa would settle for either one.

At the time of Goma’s fall, both outcomes seemed attainable. However, as time drags on, the situation grows increasingly complex. For Kinshasa, the priority is to avoid:

• Being forced into negotiations from a position of weakness while losing control of Goma.
• Launching a military offensive to retake Goma, which would mean shouldering the responsibility of bringing war back into the city.

A growing concern now is the potential fall of Bukavu, which would further strengthen the M23’s negotiating power. Kinshasa continues to prioritize engagement with the international community over relying on SADC or EAC, as both organizations have made it clear they do not support a military solution.

Furthermore, neither bloc is pushing for M23’s withdrawal from Goma, nor are they advocating for sanctions against Kigali—both of which are crucial to Kinshasa’s strategy. This leaves the DRC in a precarious position, as the current regional stance is far from favourable.

Without immediate and strong sanctions that cripple Kigali’s ability to support M23, time is working against Kinshasa. If Bukavu falls, Kinshasa will have to negotiate from an even weaker position.

Limited Options for Félix Tshisekedi

President Félix Tshisekedi’s choices are narrowing. Unless the military situation on the ground shifts in Kinshasa’s favour, he can no longer afford to delay or sidestep the regional players.

One possible move could be reaching out to Chad to deploy its troops in Ituri and Beni to contain the M23’s advance. However, this would come at a high cost. Kinshasa is banking on international support to influence the regional dynamics, but the reality is that the global community seems more interested in restoring balance rather than giving a decisive advantage to any side before negotiations begin.

For now, negotiating while Goma remains under M23 control may not be the worst scenario—especially if it allows Kinshasa to secure meaningful concessions. The fall of Goma and the humiliation suffered by the Southern African Military Intervention in the DRC (SAMIRDC), along with its political fallout in South Africa, have significantly weakened SADC’s influence.

A Fragile Regional Security Plan

The summit concluded with plans for military chiefs from EAC and SADC member states to draft a strategy for securing Goma. However, this plan hinges on the cessation of hostilities. At present, no regional force has the capacity to enforce a ceasefire, unlike the previous East African military interventions.

The heads of state in Dar es Salaam appeared more focused on the risks of the conflict escalating into a broader regional confrontation—particularly the growing tensions between Burundi and Rwanda around Bukavu and the wider South Kivu region.

A Critical Decision for Kinshasa

Faced with these realities, Kinshasa must now make a decisive choice. As Vital Kamerhe, President of the DRC’s National Assembly, pointedly stated: "The clock is ticking, and time is advancing." His words echo a growing sentiment that, since the failure of international interventions in Libya, the global community is increasingly leaving African nations to resolve their own crises. The recent wave of military coups in West Africa and other conflicts on the continent further reinforce this trend.

In 2019, despite clear irregularities in the DRC’s elections, the international community still endorsed an "African compromise." Now, the effectiveness of international sanctions is in question—many leaders are willing to endure them, while others have devised countermeasures.

The DRC can no longer impose conditions before entering negotiations, as doing so would require a shift in the current balance of power on the ground. One potential avenue is to lean on the recommendations of the UN Human Rights Council, which has launched two independent investigative mechanisms focused on the situation in Eastern DRC: a Fact-Finding Mission and an International Commission of Inquiry. This marks a step toward justice for the victims. However, according to African Security Analysis, the findings of these investigations are unlikely to satisfy any of the involved parties—since none of them truly want such scrutiny.