Geopolitical and Strategic Analysis of the Evolution of the Situation in Mali

The crisis in Mali has recently taken a new turn with the reorganization of armed groups in the North. Under the leadership of Bilal Ag Acherif, a key figure in the Tuareg rebellions, the Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA) has emerged from the merger of movements previously united under the Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA). This regrouping signifies a desire to consolidate forces to defend the interests of the northern populations amidst the escalating conflict with the Malian state and its allies, notably the African Corps (former Wagner Group).

Geopolitical and Strategic Implications

• Redefining Political Objectives:
  The FLA aims to secure a political and legal status for Azawad, a historically contested region claimed as Tuareg territory. This strategic repositioning could reignite the sensitive issues of independence or autonomy for the region, potentially destabilizing the broader region.
• Rejection of Previous Peace Accords:
  The Malian government’s abrogation of the 2015 peace agreements, coupled with the withdrawal of the MINUSMA mission, has reignited hostilities. The consolidation of armed groups into the FLA symbolizes a unified response to what they perceive as aggression from the central state and its allies.
• Involvement of International Actors:
  The increasing role of the African Corps alongside the Malian army has exacerbated the conflict. This collaboration has intensified militarization, fuelling human rights violations and mass displacements. This situation risks provoking tensions with international powers engaged in counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel.
• Regional Dynamics:
  Instability in Mali directly impacts neighbouring countries such as Niger and Algeria. The emergence of the FLA could influence similar aspirations among other marginalized communities in the region, raising the risks of conflict spillover.

The leadership of Bilal Ag Acherif and the creation of the FLA signal heightened tensions in Mali. This restructuring may redefine power dynamics in the North while complicating prospects for peaceful resolution. International and regional involvement will be crucial to contain potential escalation and prevent prolonged fragmentation of the country.

A Critical Blow

The assassination of seven senior members of the Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA) on December 1, 2024, by the Malian army marks a significant strategic development in an already tense northern Mali. This incident undermines the consolidation efforts of the FLA, which sought to unify armed groups under the recently merged Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA).

Context and Geopolitical Stakes

The formation of the FLA through the “Pact of Honor” aimed to centralize the political and military forces of separatist and autonomist groups, primarily Tuareg, to enhance their influence against Bamako. The election of Bilal Ag Acherif as president symbolized an effort to refocus autonomist demands within a coherent and operational framework.

However, the targeted assassination of these leaders destabilizes this nascent organization, reducing its ability to coordinate armed movements and present a united front. This act is seen as a show of force by the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) to reaffirm their authority in the North following several strategic setbacks.

Strategic Consequences and Implications

• Weakening the FLA:
  The loss of experienced leaders hampers the organization’s ability to mount an effective opposition against the Malian state and jihadist groups.
• Strengthening Bamako’s Power:
  Supported by geopolitical alliances (notably with African Corps and other foreign partners), the Malian army consolidates its military and strategic position in the region. This action sends a strong message to other rebel factions about the risks of escalation.
• Risk of Fragmentation:
  The elimination of key figures could lead to the fragmentation of the FLA into uncoordinated micro-units, exacerbating the already volatile security situation.
• International Reactions:
  This incident may worsen international perceptions of Mali as a nation trapped in escalating violence, grappling with both counterterrorism efforts and conflicts with autonomist groups.

Future Scenarios

• Military Escalation:
  The FLA may attempt retaliation, intensifying the cycle of violence in the North.
• Regional and International Mediation:
  Organizations such as ECOWAS or the African Union could push for renewed dialogue to prevent further deterioration.
• Strengthened Counterterrorism Efforts:
  In this context, Bamako may intensify operations to solidify its gains against armed groups.

This event represents a turning point in the struggle for control over northern Mali, reflecting the complexity of dynamics among rebels, state actors, and international powers in a crisis-ridden region. The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether this action will permanently weaken autonomist ambitions or catalyse a reorganization of armed groups.