M23 Advances on Bukavu: A Shifting Military Landscape

Ongoing Instability in Bukavu (February 14-15, 2025)

On Friday, February 14, 2025, the M23 outmanoeuvred the FARDC/Wazalendo and the Burundian army, entering Katana at dawn, near Kavumu and Bukavu airport. Following the "liberation" of the city, they held a press conference.

With enhanced mobility thanks to pick-ups seized in Goma, the M23 swiftly captured Kavumu and its strategic airport, severing the FARDC’s supply lines to Bukavu. The Congolese army's resistance has been weak, retreating over 90 km in just two weeks. Upon arrival, the M23 held a rally, reaffirming its political vision under the AFC-M23 project. The fall of Kavumu airport marks a critical turning point, facilitating their entry into Bukavu by evening. Burundian reinforcements have been overrun, and the Congolese military struggles to hold defensive positions.

On February 15, 2025, some FARDC/Wazalendo troops were still present in Bukavu. However, with the absence of effective law enforcement, armed local groups engaged in widespread looting throughout the day.

Meanwhile, M23 forces were positioned approximately 10 kilometres from the city, stationed in the surrounding hills. Later that evening, M23 leaders held an official meeting in the village of Mudaka. As the night progressed into February 16, a large number of M23 fighters began moving toward Bukavu.

Eyewitnesses reported seeing military vehicles during the night. The local population speculated that FARDC troops were returning, influenced by discussions between President Félix Tshisekedi and French President Emmanuel Macron regarding a potential ceasefire.

Félix Tshisekedi has firmly aligned himself with those willing to help him counter the M23 rebellion, which is backed by Kigali. The response from the Trump administration remains uncertain, as it appears hesitant about the DRC’s future.

M23 Seizes Control of Bukavu (February 17, 2025)

By Sunday, February 17, M23 forces had entered Bukavu and established full control over the city. Reports indicate sporadic clashes between local armed groups and M23 soldiers.

Disturbingly, some children—aged between 12 and 16—reportedly took weapons and uniforms from FARDC soldiers who had fled. These children were among those involved in looting and later confronted M23 troops. When they refused to surrender their weapons, exchanges of fire occurred, resulting in several casualties among the young fighters.

FARDC and Burundian Troops Withdraw

With M23’s rapid advance, FARDC soldiers either abandoned Bukavu or surrendered, with some even choosing to join M23. Burundian troops, previously deployed in South Kivu, had already withdrawn to Burundi well before M23’s arrival.

The SAMIDRC forces, rather than engaging M23, opted not to resist their march toward Bukavu and Goma. This marked a significant setback for President Tshisekedi, as the neutralization of SAMIDRC left him without a key military ally.

Burundi's Stance on Regional Security

The President of Burundi dismissed predictions of a potential Rwandan attack on his country. Instead, he emphasized the importance of a non-aggression pact with Rwanda as a critical diplomatic milestone. Despite this, he urged Burundians to remain vigilant, warning that new threats could emerge at any time.

Future Rebel Movements: The AFC's Next Targets

Rwanda now has two direct access points into M23-controlled territory, raising the risk of several mining towns falling under rebel control. The weaponry seized in Goma strengthens M23’s capacity to push deeper into the DRC, with ambitions to capture key cities like Uvira and Butembo—potentially paving the way for an advance on Kinshasa.

According to research by African Security Analyses (ASA), the armed rebel coalition known as the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) is expected to shift its focus to the provinces of Ituri and Tanganyika. Their strategy reportedly involves opening two key fronts:

• Southern Front: Advancing from Uvira to Kalemie
• Northern Front: Moving from Bunia to Kisangani

Additionally, militias from North Kivu and Ituri that have allied with the AFC are preparing to launch an eastern offensive, with logistical and military support from the Ugandan People's Defence Force (UPDF).

The northern front includes the Lubero axis, where ongoing battles are taking place. The M23 forces were reported on 18th February to be approximately 20 kilometres from the Lubero center. This development could significantly alter the situation, as the Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF) are present in Lubero city. The question remains whether they will engage in fighting against the M23.

As the situation unfolds, the region remains on high alert, with uncertainty looming over the Democratic Republic of Congo’s future.