Territorial Expansion of Jihadist Groups

Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea

Since 2012, the Sahel has been plunged into a cycle of jihadist violence that has caused tens of thousands of deaths and displaced millions. This violence, initially concentrated in northern Mali, has gradually spread to Burkina Faso and Niger, before directly threatening the coastal countries of West Africa, such as Benin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire.

Analysis of data from the @ACLED project, conducted by African Security Analysis, allows for a visualization of the territorial progression of jihadist groups between 2017 and the end of 2024. This progression has been accompanied by growing local entrenchment and a shift toward territorial control strategies.

Main Jihadist Armed Groups Active in the Region

1. Islamic State in the Sahel (ISS)

Formerly: Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS)

Founded in 2015 by Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahraoui, a Moroccan dissident from Al-Qaeda, this group pledged allegiance to ISIS. In 2022, it was officially recognized as a province of the Islamic State under the name Islamic State in the Sahel.

• Primarily active in the tri-border area (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso), the group remains influential despite the death of its founder in 2021.
• Since 2020, it has been in direct conflict with JNIM, intensifying violence in the region.
• It employs guerrilla tactics: hit-and-run raids, suicide attacks, village pillaging, and executions, while attempting to establish local Islamic governance.

2. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM or GSIM)

Formed in March 2017 from the merger of several Al-Qaeda-affiliated factions (Ansar Dine, Katiba Macina, Al-Mourabitoune), JNIM is currently the main jihadist force in the Sahel.

• Led by Malian Tuareg Iyad Ag Ghali, with the support of Sedane Ag Hita, it operates in a hierarchical yet decentralized manner.
• Active in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, it is now extending its influence toward the coastal states.
• It recruits locally, especially among marginalized youth, and primarily targets military forces.
• A recent strategic meeting in Mali, attended by Iyad Ag Ghali and figures such as Mahmoud Barry (spokesperson), confirmed the unity and resilience of the movement.

3. Katiba Macina

A key component of JNIM, Katiba Macina was founded in 2015 by Amadou Koufa, a radical Fulani preacher.

• It is highly active in central Mali, particularly in the Mopti region, where it targets civilians and security forces.
• It aspires to revive the 19th-century Fulani Macina Empire.
• Although Koufa’s death was announced in 2018, he reportedly took part in a recent JNIM meeting, suggesting he is still active.

4. Ansarul Islam

The first large-scale jihadist group in Burkina Faso, Ansarul Islam was founded in 2016 by Ibrahim Malam Dicko, a Fulani preacher.

• After his death in 2017, his brother Abdoul Salam Dicko (alias Djaffar) took over leadership.
• Active in Burkina Faso and Mali, the group maintains close ties with JNIM and affiliated entities such as Katiba Abou Hanifa.
• It has claimed many attacks, including the late March 2024 Diapaga attack, in which nearly 60 soldiers were killed.

5. Katiba Abou Hanifa (or Katiba Hanifa)

An emerging branch of JNIM, Katiba Hanifa has gained increasing strategic importance. On June 30, 2024, it was designated as a “Mantiqa” (autonomous jihadist region) by the movement.

• It operates in southeastern Burkina Faso, southern Téra (Niger), W National Park, and northeastern Benin.
• This transborder area offers logistical advantages and facilitates smuggling, kidnappings, and rapid movement.
• Led by Abou Anifa (alias Oumarou), a former member of Katiba Serma from Seno (Mali), it aims to enforce Sharia law over controlled territory.
• Its recent operations have been particularly deadly:
• Benin attack, March 2024: 28 soldiers killed.

• Diapaga attack, March 28, 2024: nearly 60 Burkinabè soldiers killed.

Security and Regional Impacts

The rise of these armed groups has had devastating effects on regional stability:

• Collapse of governance in certain areas.
• Mass displacement of populations.
• Breakdown of public services and increased food insecurity.
• Spread of jihadism toward the Gulf of Guinea, notably northern Benin, Togo, and northern Côte d’Ivoire.

The growing structuring of groups like Katiba Hanifa reflects a clear ambition for lasting territorial entrenchment, far beyond sporadic harassment tactics.