The Southwest Indian Ocean at the Crossroads of Global Strategic Rivalry

Long overlooked in the chessboard of global power, the southwest Indian Ocean — encompassing the Mozambique Channel and its African coastlines — has emerged as one of the world's most hotly contested zones. Energy security, maritime control, military projection, space diplomacy, and access to critical resources are all converging in this region. Global and regional powers are recalibrating their positions, while African states seek to convert their strategic exposure into a source of sovereign strength.

France returns to the region

France's return to the region, after a decade of relative disengagement, marks more than a tactical correction. It reflects a broader strategic reorientation, anchored in an essential partnership with India. Paris and New Delhi are building politico-military interoperability against a backdrop of energy diplomacy. Diego Suarez, Mayotte, and Tromelin are emerging as strategic nodes in a Franco-Indian axis, underpinned by shared stakes in Mozambique’s Rovuma Basin Area 1, where TotalEnergies, ONGC, and Bharat Petroleum together control nearly half the exploitation rights. This is hybrid diplomacy in action: a mix of joint military exercises, naval deployments, and coordinated investments in energy, logistics, and technology.

Through its SAGAR initiative ("Security and Growth for All in the Region"), India is evolving from a cautious regional player into a proactive stabilizing force. In 2025, it co-hosts the AIKEYME (Africa India Key Maritime Engagement ) exercises with eight African countries, reinforcing a sustained maritime presence from Zanzibar to Maputo via Port Louis. Yet India's ambitions face structural limits: it cannot match China’s economic clout or rival the U.S. in military projection. Instead, India opts for a pragmatic route — safeguarding energy corridors, cultivating flexible alliances, and branding itself as a "partner of first resort" against piracy, maritime terrorism, and environmental threats.

In Mayotte, France maintains a symbolically potent but increasingly fragile foothold. Challenged by Comorian claims, diplomatically cornered on migration, and facing criticism from emergent powers such as Russia, China, and Turkey, France is leaning on strategic partnerships: resource diplomacy with the UAE, diplomatic alignment with India, and multilateral engagement through the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC). But on the ground, its position is fraying. As other actors invest in the blue economy, satellite tech, fisheries, and dual-use infrastructure, Mayotte risks becoming a weak link in a rapidly shifting strategic architecture.

While France shores up its historical bastions, Russia is pursuing a quieter, targeted approach. In Mauritius, Russia’s cooperation with the Mauritius Research and Innovation Council (MRIC) in space technologies acts as a Trojan horse for a new wave of "orbit diplomacy." Using satellites, maritime surveillance, and remote sensing, Moscow is extending its reach through innovation and soft power. It avoids open confrontation, preferring to exploit the vacuums left by receding Western influence.

The Mozambique Channel is now a hotspot where global energy, mining, and logistical interests collide. Offshore deposits in Rovuma and Mnazi Bay are accelerating regional militarization: acoustic sensors, drones, radars, and patrols are increasingly deployed to safeguard infrastructure and monitor sea lanes. In Cabo Delgado, insurgent violence endures despite Rwandan military efforts. A fragmented security landscape has emerged — a patchwork of private contractors, national forces, NGOs, and militias. France, via TotalEnergies, is striving to secure its assets while retaining sovereignty over strategic resources.

The United States, meanwhile, maintains a more discreet yet methodical presence. An outpost in Voidju (Grande Comore) links it to key gas and mining zones. Madagascar, home to Africa’s largest, rare earth reserve at Ampasindava, has become a strategic linchpin under U.S. oversight, with Australia playing a key role through the QUAD framework. Washington favours a "shadow presence": surveillance, influence operations, logistical hubs — all designed to secure critical supply chains without overt military engagement. The goal is not territorial control, but strategic access in the context of the Sino-American rivalry.

Conclusion: One Sea, Many Stakes, Emerging Fault Lines

By 2025, the western Indian Ocean is no longer a geopolitical afterthought. It is a central arena in the reordering of global power — where established powers, emerging challengers, and aspiring African sovereignties all intersect. The race to control sea lanes, resource flows, and maritime influence is relentless, without fixed alliances or clear boundaries. In this context of fluid rivalries and overlapping ambitions, the Mozambique Channel reflects the broader tensions shaping the international order. No longer just a maritime corridor, it has become a theatre of global competition.