Transition, Tensions, and Al-Shabaab Resilience in Somalia - March 2025

Overview

Somalia’s security situation in early 2025 remains complex and volatile, characterized by ongoing conflict between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), its allied forces, and the Al-Shabaab militant group, alongside emerging regional tensions and a transitioning international security presence. While the government has made strides in reclaiming territory and strengthening its security apparatus, Al-Shabaab continues to pose a significant threat through sophisticated attacks and territorial control in rural areas. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) concluded its mandate in December 2024, with its successor, the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), taking over as of January 1, 2025. This report synthesizes the latest available information up to March 07, 2025, reflecting Somalia’s security dynamics.

Security Transition and International Presence

The ATMIS drawdown, completed by December 31, 2024, marked a pivotal shift in Somalia’s security landscape. The mission, which had supported Somali security forces against Al-Shabaab since 2007 (initially as AMISOM), transitioned to AUSSOM, authorized by the UN Security Council on December 27, 2024, via Resolution 2767. AUSSOM is mandated to deploy up to 12,626 personnel, including 1,040 police, through June 30, 2025, with a focus on stabilizing liberated areas and supporting the Somali National Army (SNA). However, the AU Commission extended ATMIS military and civilian personnel tours until March 31, 2025, to ensure continuity during the transition.

The transition has raised concerns about potential security gaps, particularly given the Somali security forces’ uneven readiness to assume full responsibility. Regional tensions, notably with Ethiopia over its January 2024 memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, have complicated the process. Somalia’s National Security Adviser announced in June 2024 that Ethiopian troops would not participate in AUSSOM, a decision that has strained relations with federal member states like Jubaland and South-West State, which rely on Ethiopian forces to counter Al-Shabaab.

Al-Shabaab Activities

Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, remains a formidable threat despite government offensives. In February 2025, the group executed multiple high-profile attacks in Middle Shabelle, including raids on Somali forces’ bases in Ali Fol Dheer (February 23), DaaruNicma (February 27), and Ceel Cali Axmed (February 27). These assaults involved advanced weaponry, such as Chinese-made CS/LR11 assault rifles, Type 80 machine guns, and RPG-7 launchers, demonstrating the group’s continued access to sophisticated arms. Posts on X from late February 2025 also reported heavy fighting in Balad, an agricultural town, as Al-Shabaab attempted to dislodge the SNA.

The National Security Adviser highlighted successes in countering Al-Shabaab, including military gains, financial disruptions, and the shutdown of propaganda networks. However, the group retains the capacity for complex operations, particularly in rural areas of southern and central Somalia, where it controls significant territory and imposes taxation systems.

Government and Somali Security Forces

The FGS, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has prioritized defeating Al-Shabaab, with offensives launched since 2022 showing progress in liberating areas, particularly in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The SNA and Somali Police Force (SPF) assumed security responsibilities for key sites like the State House and Federal Parliament in December 2023, a milestone in self-reliance. By March 2025, Mogadishu’s security has reportedly improved, with the president’s motorcade moving without road closures, signalling confidence in urban stability.

Nevertheless, the SNA faces challenges, including clan-based divisions, limited training, and reliance on external support. The government’s Security Sector Development Plan aims to train 40,000 personnel, but institutional weaknesses persist, with analysts describing the SNA as fragmented and prone to corruption.

Regional Dynamics

Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, exacerbated by Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland for sea access, have escalated. Somalia severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia in early 2025, and tripartite summits with Egypt and Eritrea in January 2025 underscored a shifting regional alliance aimed at countering Ethiopian influence. These developments threaten to destabilize the Horn of Africa, potentially undermining joint efforts against Al-Shabaab.

Humanitarian and Civilian Impact

The security situation continues to drive humanitarian crises. Conflict and insecurity displaced approximately 20,489 people in January 2025, per UNHCR data, compounding the effects of drought and food insecurity affecting 4.4 million Somalis by April 2025. Al-Shabaab’s attacks on civilians, alongside inter-clan violence in Galmudug, have worsened conditions, with military courts sentencing individuals, including children, to death for alleged affiliations with the group.

Conclusion

As of March 07, 2025, Somalia’s security situation reflects a precarious balance between progress and persistent challenges. The government’s gains against Al-Shabaab and the transition to AUSSOM signal potential for stability, yet the militant group’s resilience, regional tensions, and the SNA’s limitations pose significant risks. Sustained international support, effective security sector reform, and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate regional disputes will be critical to preventing a security vacuum and advancing Somalia’s stability in 2025.