A Decisive Turning Point for Peace in the DRC
On April 9, 2025, Doha becomes the setting for a historic meeting for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). With Qatar acting as mediator, negotiations between the Congolese government and the rebel group M23/AFC aim to lay the foundations for lasting peace in the eastern DRC, a region devastated by decades of conflict. While promising, this initiative remains fragile in the face of persistent challenges and complex geopolitical tensions.
A Deeply Rooted Conflict
For years, the M23 has operated in the provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu, and in 2025, the rebel group secured strategic cities like Goma and Bukavu. These military advances have exacerbated tensions with Rwanda, often accused of supporting the group. The repercussions are severe: massive displacement of populations and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Previous diplomatic attempts, such as those in Luanda in March 2025, have failed due to European sanctions targeting key M23/AFC figures and Rwandan officials. These measures have hardened positions, leaving Doha as a last hope for mediation.
Qatar: A Quiet yet Ambitious Mediator
The meeting between President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, facilitated by Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on March 18, 2025, marked a significant milestone. It resulted in a fragile ceasefire and the promise of direct discussions with the M23/AFC. Since then, preparations for the April 9 negotiations have unfolded in strategic discretion, characteristic of Qatar's diplomatic efforts.
Formidable Challenges Ahead
Direct dialogue between the Congolese government and the M23/AFC is key, but obstacles remain. European sanctions continue to frustrate the rebels and slow progress. Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis worsens, and civilians bear the brunt. Although the FARDC coalition and its allies, the Wazalendo, have reclaimed Walikale after the rebels' withdrawal, instability persists.
A Risky Diplomatic Gamble
Opinions on the outcome of the negotiations are divided. Some see Doha as a unique opportunity for peace, given Qatar's proven expertise in resolving international crises. Others remain skeptical, arguing that a robust agreement requires clarification of Rwanda's role and easing sanctions imposed on the M23/AFC.
Kinshasa appears willing to engage in direct dialogue with the rebel movement, signaling a new approach. However, the rebels must demonstrate their sincerity by halting offensives. Major differences persist: a close affiliate of the M23 stated that their primary goal is the resignation of the Congolese president, a demand firmly rejected by Kinshasa.
Walikale: A Strategically Calculated Retreat
Despite the imminent talks, the rebels abandoned Walikale for two main reasons. On one hand, they aim to present a positive image internationally by showing their willingness to respect the ceasefire. On the other hand, this is a strategic move. With the road between Goma and Walikale being impassable, the M23 is using this time to reorganize forces and conduct rotations, as troops on this axis are likely fatigued. Additionally, Walikale is a region rich in militias allied to the FARDC. The rebels anticipate that, in the event of failed talks in Doha, their troops will be ready to redeploy quickly to strategic provinces like Tshopo and Kindu.
A Crucial Regional Issue
The stakes transcend the DRC. The stability of the Great Lakes region is at risk, and a successful outcome in Doha could revitalize regional cooperation. Conversely, failure might deepen tensions and ignite further violence. Qatar has already achieved a significant feat by bringing the stakeholders together, but transforming this effort into tangible, lasting peace will require time, flexibility, and skilled diplomacy.
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Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
Strengthening Maritime Security and Navigating Sahelian Integration Challenges
On 23 April, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its fourth session under the theme “The Imperative of a Combined Maritime Task Force in Addressing Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.” Over the last decade, Gulf of Guinea states have deepened regional cooperation and harnessed digital technologies to bolster Maritime Domain Awareness, driving piracy incidents down from 84 in 2020 to just 18 in 2024. Yet much of this capability rests on platforms developed, financed, and controlled by external partners, leaving coastal states exposed to shifting geopolitical winds.
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