Doha Negotiations: A Stalemate Amid Unyielding Tensions
The anticipated peace talks between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government and AFC/M23 rebels, aimed at addressing the prolonged conflict in the eastern regions, have been postponed indefinitely. This delay highlights the persistent challenges in achieving a peaceful resolution to a crisis that has devastated the region for years.
Diverging Positions: A Deep Divide
Both delegations arrived in Doha with rigid and conflicting demands, underscoring the significant gap between their positions:
Kinshasa’s Conditions: President Félix Tshisekedi's government has maintained a firm stance, emphasizing sovereignty and territorial integrity. Its demands include:
- Immediate and unconditional ceasefire as a prerequisite for dialogue.
- Rejection of integrating rebel forces into the national army (FARDC).
- Withdrawal of AFC/M23 from occupied territories like Goma and Bukavu.
- Compliance with the DDRCS program for disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration.
- Refusal to allow any rebel administration in occupied zones.
AFC/M23’s Demands: The rebels, emboldened by their territorial control, have outlined their own preconditions:
- Public acknowledgment by President Tshisekedi of willingness for direct negotiations.
- Revocation of restrictive measures, including the November 2022 resolution.
- Amnesty for leaders, including annulment of death sentences and arrest warrants.
- Release of detainees accused of affiliation with AFC/M23, often based on ethnic profiling.
- End to hate speech and ethnic discrimination, with protection for Tutsi communities.
- Signing of a bilateral ceasefire agreement, rejecting unilateral terms imposed by Kinshasa.
Diplomatic Deadlock
The stark contrast between Kinshasa's insistence on sovereignty and AFC/M23's demands for recognition and protection has resulted in a diplomatic impasse. Kinshasa views the rebels as proxies for foreign actors, particularly Rwanda, while AFC/M23 frames its struggle as a defense of marginalized communities, particularly Tutsis, highlighting systemic discrimination and ethnic tensions.
Regional and Ethnic Complications
The crisis is deeply intertwined with ethnic and regional dynamics. AFC/M23 emphasizes the need to address discrimination and violence faced by Tutsi populations, while Kinshasa's reluctance to engage with these grievances’ risks exacerbating ethnic divides. The rebels’ control over strategic territories further complicates efforts to restore state authority in the east.
Talks Postponed, Future Uncertain
Despite the presence of both delegations in Doha, the negotiations have been postponed sine die, with no new date announced. Sources from both camps indicate that neither side is willing to compromise on their “red lines,” casting doubt on the likelihood of a near-term resolution.
Africa Security Analysis believe that the indefinite suspension of the Doha peace talks underscores the complexities of the eastern DRC crisis. Entrenched positions on both sides hinder meaningful progress, while the conflict’s ethnic, regional, and political dimensions continue to fuel instability. Without concessions and genuine efforts to address underlying grievances, the prospect of lasting peace remains elusive.
ASA believes that this situation may shift the balance of military operations on the ground, despite the absence of a robust ceasefire.
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Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
Strengthening Maritime Security and Navigating Sahelian Integration Challenges
On 23 April, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its fourth session under the theme “The Imperative of a Combined Maritime Task Force in Addressing Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.” Over the last decade, Gulf of Guinea states have deepened regional cooperation and harnessed digital technologies to bolster Maritime Domain Awareness, driving piracy incidents down from 84 in 2020 to just 18 in 2024. Yet much of this capability rests on platforms developed, financed, and controlled by external partners, leaving coastal states exposed to shifting geopolitical winds.
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