Escalating Conflict in Tigray
TPLF Faction Seizes Control
A splinter faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has seized control of two major towns in Ethiopia's Tigray region, raising concerns about the fragile peace established by the Pretoria Agreement. The interim government in Tigray has appealed to the federal government for assistance.
Despite the peace deal, underlying tensions remain unresolved, and efforts towards reconstruction and transitional justice have stalled. The conflict initially stemmed from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's transformation of Ethiopia's political landscape from ethnic federalism to a more centralized structure. The war, which lasted two years, resulted in over 600,000 deaths and displaced millions.
TPLF Faction Seizes Mekelle FM 104.4 and Mayor’s Office
A TPLF faction has taken control of Mekelle FM 104.4 and the city’s mayor’s office, escalating tensions between the interim administration and TPLF-aligned military commanders. Residents in Mekelle, Adigrat, and Adigudem report an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty, with many withdrawing money and buying essential goods.
In Adigudem, six local leaders were detained and taken to unknown locations on March 12, with similar concerns raised in Adigrat, where long lines formed at banks. Many youths feel they have "nowhere to turn."
No Formal Request for Federal Intervention - Getachew Reda
Getachew Reda, president of Tigray’s Interim Administration, stated that no formal request has been made for federal intervention. However, he emphasized the federal government’s responsibility to protect the administration established with its participation. He attributed the crisis to an “illegitimate faction” within the TPLF, acting with certain military leaders, and clarified that addressing the situation does not mean deploying the military or initiating war.
Background and Current Tensions
Between November 2020 and November 2022, Tigray was a conflict zone between federal forces, local militias, the Eritrean army, and Tigrayan rebels. The fighting left at least 600,000 people dead before a peace agreement was signed in Pretoria, South Africa. The agreement established an interim administration to rule Tigray until elections are held.
However, delays in implementing the agreement have caused sharp divisions within the TPLF. Getachew Reda, appointed by Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy, is in a power struggle with Debretsion Gebremichael. Recently, Getachew suspended three generals of the Tigray Defence Forces, accusing the rival faction of trying to take over Tigray.
There is growing fear that Eritrea may take advantage of the situation to launch an invasion. Kjetil Tronvoll, an Oslo University professor specializing in the region, noted that dissatisfaction with the 2022 peace agreement, Abiy's ambitions for a port on the Red Sea, and geopolitical interests from the Middle East have all contributed to the deteriorating tensions.
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Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
Strengthening Maritime Security and Navigating Sahelian Integration Challenges
On 23 April, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its fourth session under the theme “The Imperative of a Combined Maritime Task Force in Addressing Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.” Over the last decade, Gulf of Guinea states have deepened regional cooperation and harnessed digital technologies to bolster Maritime Domain Awareness, driving piracy incidents down from 84 in 2020 to just 18 in 2024. Yet much of this capability rests on platforms developed, financed, and controlled by external partners, leaving coastal states exposed to shifting geopolitical winds.
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