RSF Leader Declares Parallel Government in Strategic Power Play
On April 15, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commander of Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), announced the establishment of a rival political entity—termed the "Government of Peace and Unity." Delivered in a pre-recorded address marking the second anniversary of Sudan’s civil war, the declaration signifies more than a symbolic gesture; it signals an overt attempt to institutionalize RSF control over vast swathes of contested territory.
Dagalo’s timing is calculated. By framing the move as a response to a prolonged governance vacuum, he is attempting to legitimize RSF dominance over regions such as Darfur and parts of Kordofan, while co-opting factions of the Sudan Liberation Movement to bolster political credibility. The creation of this alternative administration appears designed not only to challenge the authority of the official Sudanese government but also to position the RSF as a state-building actor capable of rallying a diverse coalition under a unifying, albeit self-serving, banner.
The implications of this development are profound. Analysts warn that Dagalo’s declaration risks entrenching Sudan’s de facto partition, drawing uncomfortable parallels to Libya’s fractured governance and the path that led to South Sudan’s independence in 2011. Reports of intensifying violence in western Darfur—where over 400 people have reportedly been killed in recent RSF operations—underscore the military coercion underpinning this political gambit.
Crucially, the RSF’s move reflects a broader strategic calculus: by embedding itself as a governing authority, it not only deepens its territorial entrenchment but also complicates international diplomatic efforts. The alternative government serves as a negotiating tool, allowing Dagalo to reframe the RSF not merely as a military faction, but as a political stakeholder demanding recognition in any future settlement.
International Response: Ceasefire Demands Amid Escalation
In response to the deepening crisis, G7 foreign ministers issued a joint statement condemning the RSF’s actions and urging both the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces to commit to an immediate, unconditional ceasefire. The statement reaffirmed international concern over civilian casualties and the disintegration of Sudanese national unity. However, in the absence of a cohesive diplomatic strategy or meaningful leverage over local actors, such calls may have limited impact in altering the trajectory of the conflict.
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Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
Strengthening Maritime Security and Navigating Sahelian Integration Challenges
On 23 April, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its fourth session under the theme “The Imperative of a Combined Maritime Task Force in Addressing Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.” Over the last decade, Gulf of Guinea states have deepened regional cooperation and harnessed digital technologies to bolster Maritime Domain Awareness, driving piracy incidents down from 84 in 2020 to just 18 in 2024. Yet much of this capability rests on platforms developed, financed, and controlled by external partners, leaving coastal states exposed to shifting geopolitical winds.
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