SAF Takes Control of Khartoum
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have completed their takeover of Khartoum Bahri after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) withdrew under pressure. This marks the end of a five-month offensive that began in September 2024.
The nearly two-year battle has led to thousands of deaths, injuries, and widespread displacement. While fighting in Bahri has ceased, economic collapse and infrastructure destruction hinder the return of residents.
Fighting Shifts to East Nile
Clashes have moved to El Haj Yusuf and East Nile, where many residents remain due to poverty and limited prior fighting. SAF advances are difficult to confirm but have been reported along key roads. East Nile is particularly vulnerable due to its lack of natural defences and RSF’s weaker presence.
SAF has seized territory along the “Armored Axis,” advancing toward the Mogran Axis and General Command. Though relatively small, these gains improve their strategic position. This area is largely depopulated, minimizing civilian impact.
Central Khartoum: Stalemate Continues
In downtown Khartoum, RSF still holds key locations like the Presidential Palace and Arab Market. SAF troops are within 1-1.5 km of the palace, but no major territorial changes have been confirmed. Capturing the palace remains a key objective for SAF.
South of Khartoum, SAF captured Giad Industrial City and surrounding villages, leaving RSF with limited control in Al-Bageir. In White Nile, SAF advanced toward Al-Giteina.
SAF’s offensives are pressuring RSF across multiple fronts. While Bahri is now under SAF control, battles in East Nile and downtown Khartoum remain critical to the conflict’s outcome.
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Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
Strengthening Maritime Security and Navigating Sahelian Integration Challenges
On 23 April, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its fourth session under the theme “The Imperative of a Combined Maritime Task Force in Addressing Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.” Over the last decade, Gulf of Guinea states have deepened regional cooperation and harnessed digital technologies to bolster Maritime Domain Awareness, driving piracy incidents down from 84 in 2020 to just 18 in 2024. Yet much of this capability rests on platforms developed, financed, and controlled by external partners, leaving coastal states exposed to shifting geopolitical winds.
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