Tigray Security Crisis
The security situation in Tigray, Ethiopia, has significantly deteriorated, raising fears of a return to civil war and a potential interstate conflict with Eritrea. Key developments include:
- TPLF Infighting and Territorial Control: A dissident faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), led by Debretsion Gebremichael, has seized key towns, including Adigrat on March 11 and parts of Mekelle, the regional capital, by mid-March. This faction overran administrative structures, detained interim appointees, and took control of local media like Mekelle FM 104.4. The interim administration, headed by Getachew Reda and backed by Ethiopia’s federal government, has struggled to maintain authority, with reports indicating it capitulated without resistance in some areas, leaving Getachew reportedly "on the run."
- Violence and Civilian Impact: Clashes between TPLF dissidents and interim government forces have resulted in numerous civilian casualties, particularly in Mekelle and Adi Gudom. Civilians protesting the takeovers have been rounded up and shot at, escalating unrest. Residents have responded by withdrawing cash and stockpiling supplies, signalling widespread fear of further instability.
- Eritrean and Ethiopian Military Movements: Amid the internal chaos, Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization in mid-February, while Ethiopia deployed troops toward the Eritrean border by early March. These actions, coupled with Eritrea’s exclusion from the 2022 Pretoria Agreement and the continued presence of Eritrean forces in Tigray, have heightened tensions, with regional officials like General Tsadkan Gebretensae warning of an imminent Ethiopia-Eritrea war.
- Regional and International Concerns: The interim administration has appealed for federal support to counter the dissidents, who deny Eritrean ties despite accusations. The African Union has urged adherence to the 2022 peace deal, while experts warn that renewed conflict could destabilize the Horn of Africa, exacerbating humanitarian crises in Sudan and South Sudan. Western nations and the UN have yet to fully respond, though the situation has alarmed observers.
The combination of TPLF factionalism, violent clashes, and military posturing by Ethiopia and Eritrea has plunged Tigray into chaos, with the Pretoria Agreement’s stability unravelling and the region teetering on the brink of broader conflict.
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Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
Strengthening Maritime Security and Navigating Sahelian Integration Challenges
On 23 April, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its fourth session under the theme “The Imperative of a Combined Maritime Task Force in Addressing Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.” Over the last decade, Gulf of Guinea states have deepened regional cooperation and harnessed digital technologies to bolster Maritime Domain Awareness, driving piracy incidents down from 84 in 2020 to just 18 in 2024. Yet much of this capability rests on platforms developed, financed, and controlled by external partners, leaving coastal states exposed to shifting geopolitical winds.
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