Algeria-Mali: A Diplomatic Crisis with Regional Implications
On April 7, 2025, Algeria closed its airspace to Mali following the destruction of a Malian drone near the border in late March. Algeria claims the drone violated its airspace by over 2 kilometers, while Mali maintains it was 10 kilometers inside its own territory. This incident sparked a significant diplomatic crisis, marked by mutual accusations and the recall of ambassadors from Sahel States Alliance (AES) member countries, including Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
A Triggering Incident
The Malian drone, registered TZ-98D, was engaged in an anti-terrorist surveillance mission targeting an armed group in the Tinzaouaten region. According to Malian authorities, its destruction compromised a strategic operation. Algerian authorities, however, justified shooting down the drone as a defensive measure against an unacceptable airspace violation. Mali has described this act as a "premeditated hostility" against its sovereignty.
After 72 hours without a response from Algeria, Mali recalled its ambassador and reciprocated by denying access to its airspace for Algerian aircraft.
A War of Influence
This drone incident highlights an ongoing regional power struggle. Mali accuses Algeria of supporting separatist groups in the north, which Bamako considers terrorist organizations. Conversely, Algeria regards these groups as legitimate political actors. Since 2021, Mali has rejected the 2015 Algiers Peace Agreement and opted for a military solution, a stance Algeria firmly opposes.
For the first time, AES members have collectively confronted Algeria, intensifying tensions. These grievances are compounded by long-standing conflicts, such as Mali's withdrawal from the peace agreement, and allegations of mutual interference in internal affairs.
Reactions and Potential Consequences
The AES denounced Algeria's actions as "hostile behavior." In addition to recalling ambassadors, Mali announced its immediate withdrawal from the Joint Staff Committee (CEMOC) and signaled plans to file a complaint against Algeria with international bodies.
This crisis could significantly destabilize the Sahel region:
- Economic Disruptions: Closure of airspace affecting regional trade and transport.
- Security Instability: Weakening of AES and resurgence of jihadist groups.
- Risk of Military Escalation: With dire humanitarian and economic fallout.
An Unthinkable Military Confrontation
A direct military conflict with Algeria is highly unlikely for Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, given the Algerian military’s superior equipment, strategy, and resources. Algeria, with the best-equipped army in North Africa, holds logistical advantages and a strategic depth that would make any confrontation catastrophic for its Sahelian neighbors.
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A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
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