Final Confrontations for the Control of Goma
On Thursday, January 23, 2025, M23 (Mouvement du 23-Mars) openly and publicly threatened to retake Goma. In a statement released on the night of January 22, the rebellion's spokesperson issued a warning to MONUSCO and SADC forces. On January 24, 2025, M23 elements occupied the Trois Antennes hills and entered the town of Sake. M23's strategy would be to draw MONUSCO, FARDC (DRC Army), and SADC (SAMIRDC) forces towards Sake and, most likely, to launch attacks from Nyiragongo, the park (Muja village). Romanian mercenary forces and AGEMIRA (Private Military Company) instructors bombarded M23 positions on the hills around Sake with Sukhoi helicopters.
On January 23, the South Africa Minister of Defense met in Kinshasa with the DRC Deputy Minister of Defense. The SA Minister plans to visit Goma. North Kivu civil society has asked the population to remain calm at home. The border between Rwanda and the DRC in Goma was open, and some families crossed the border to seek refuge in Gisenyi, Rwanda. Visits to Goma should be limited. The navigation of small boats is prohibited between Goma and Bukavu. Goma International Airport is still open and operational. According to M23 insiders, the green light to retake the city of Goma has already been given.
The situation is very concerning. The open threat to retake Goma and the military movements around Sake show that the conflict is far from resolved. M23's strategy of drawing MONUSCO, FARDC, and SADC forces towards Sake could be an attempt to divert and weaken opposing forces. According to a senior M23 official, M23 could enter the city of Goma from surrounding villages.
The situation remains volatile and requires continuous attention for anyone planning to travel to this area. It is time for those who can leave the city for Gisenyi, given the unknown number of armed individuals, bandits assimilated to local self-defence forces, and military personnel. The city is suffocated and cordoned off, with only one safe exit to Gisenyi, Rwanda. It risks being characterized by total and uncontrollable urban insecurity.
The described situation shows a significant advance of M23 in the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, with major strategic implications for the city of Goma. The capture of key localities and the abandonment of positions by the FARDC and their Burundian allies indicate a weakness of government forces in the face of the M23 offensive. The meeting between the M23 commander and humanitarian organizations highlights the importance of the humanitarian dimension and is seen as a test of how M23 prepares to engage with humanitarian organizations in Goma.
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A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
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