Intensifying Conflict in Eastern DRC: M23 Rebels Advance
The Rwanda-backed M23 rebels intensified their offensive in early January 2025, advancing toward the strategic urban center of Masisi despite an official ceasefire. The Congolese military (FARDC) and its allied Wazalendo militias failed to halt the advance, resulting in M23 seizing control of Masisi and nearby settlements by January 4.
Located approximately 80 kilometers northwest of Goma—a provincial capital housing over a million residents—Masisi’s capture marks a major victory for the rebels. However, despite their historic capture of Goma in 2012, current indications suggest that the city is not a priority for M23 at this time.
Instead, local reports indicate that M23 is moving westward toward Walikale territory, an area targeted by the group in late 2024. Heavy clashes have also been reported near Bweremana, a strategic area often referred to as the gateway to South Kivu.
South Kivu itself has witnessed intensified violence, with a coalition of FARDC, Makanika forces, and Red Tabara fighters engaging in a fierce two-day battle around Minembwe, leaving over 30 people dead. Meanwhile, fresh clashes along key routes to South Kivu suggest the violence may escalate further and expand geographically.
In response, FARDC launched a counteroffensive, regaining control of settlements around Sake, Masisi, and Bweremana. However, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain.
M23’s recent movements indicate a renewed focus on Sake, a town it has besieged for months. Losing control of Sake under mounting internal and external pressure could have profound consequences for Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi, potentially shaping the future trajectory of the conflict.
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A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
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