SPLM-N and RSF Forge Alliance in Nairobi: Implications for Sudan's Civil War
In February 2025, a significant political development unfolded in Nairobi, Kenya, as the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu, aligned with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) during a conference. This collaboration signals a potential intensification of Sudan's civil war, particularly in the Nuba Mountains, a region that had remained relatively peaceful since the conflict's onset in April 2023.
The conference, held at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre, saw Al-Hilu and RSF Deputy Commander-in-Chief Abdelrahim Dagalo jointly announce the formation of a 'parallel government' to rival Sudan's military-led administration based in Port Sudan. Al-Hilu emphasized the need to dismantle the existing state's violent apparatus, advocating for a new governance model rooted in equality and justice.
This burgeoning alliance between SPLM-N and RSF has raised concerns about the potential escalation of hostilities in the Nuba Mountains, an area historically plagued by conflict but relatively calm in recent times. The Sudanese government has condemned Kenya for hosting the conference, viewing it as an infringement on Sudan's sovereignty and a hostile act. In response, Kenya's foreign ministry reaffirmed its commitment to facilitating peace efforts in Sudan, citing its history of hosting Sudanese refugees and promoting dialogue.
The international community is closely monitoring these developments, apprehensive that the SPLM-N and RSF's political manoeuvring could exacerbate the ongoing civil war and destabilize the region further.
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A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
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