Strategic Shift of ADF/ISCAP
Focus on Territorial Control in Ituri and North Kivu
Since April 2025, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), now operating under the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP), have drastically altered their operational approach in the Democratic Republic of Congo. According to Africa Security Analysis (ASA), which gathered information from sources close to the group, the ADF/ISCAP has moved away from its previous tactics of rapid, high-impact raids. Instead, they now prioritize prolonged territorial occupation. This shift is part of a broader strategy aimed at consolidating control over regions in Ituri and North Kivu, establishing a multifaceted system of dominance over local populations. The methods employed include financial extortion, religious coercion, resource exploitation, and agricultural control.
In the Mambasa region (Ituri), the rebels have set up a coercive financial system, requiring each household to pay a compulsory "identification fee" of 10 USD, followed by a monthly levy of 30 USD. This system of tribute is enforced through violence and is designed to establish a proto-state authority in rebel-held areas.
Converting to Islam is compulsory
Simultaneously, the ADF/ISCAP imposes religious constraints: studying the Quran and converting to Islam are compulsory, with violent retribution for non-compliance. This religious enforcement aims to homogenize the social structure under rebel rule and legitimize their political-religious agenda by forcibly altering local cultural and religious practices.
In North Kivu’s Lubero territory, this strategy is expanding geographically and sectoral. Farmers must now buy a "token" costing around 10 USD to access their land. Additionally, there are reports of the rebels taking photographs to impose stricter controls on villagers' movements. In the Mutueyi area (Bambuba-Kisiki), ADF/ISCAP fighters operate freely, committing abductions and murders, thus creating an atmosphere of terror along rural routes.
The economic impact of this occupation is already visible. Security concerns are preventing access to agricultural zones, leading to a sharp food scarcity in local markets. Prices for staples such as beans and rice have risen significantly, making it difficult for families to afford basic necessities. Merchants fear the situation will worsen, with some contemplating importing food from Butembo, which could further disrupt market stability.
Beyond agricultural control, Africa Security Analysis also reports that the ADF/ISCAP has expanded into the artisanal gold mining sector. In the Bapere area, civilians are being forced to resume mining under the rebels' direct supervision, with the rebels taking a substantial share of the extracted gold. They set the price per gram, and any resistance is met with violent retribution.
Move towards permanent territorial consolidation
The current shift in the ADF/ISCAP’s operations signals a move towards permanent territorial consolidation. The group is no longer relying on sporadic acts of terror but is building a comprehensive network of economic, ideological, and military control to ensure its long-term presence. This strategy marks a deliberate effort to integrate into the local socio-political fabric, exploiting governance gaps and socio-economic vulnerabilities.
In response to this new form of control, a purely military solution is insufficient. Restoring state authority will require re-establishing administrative control, supporting agricultural production, securing vital commercial routes, and taking decisive action against illegal resource exploitation. The resilience of local communities will depend largely on how effectively Congolese authorities can counter this insidious form of dominance.
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A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
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