Sudanese Armed Forces Achieve Major Victories Against RSF
In Sudan, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have made significant strides in liberating Bahri, a twin city of Khartoum, and are advancing in various neighbourhoods of the capital. Concurrently, SAF troops have captured the RSF stronghold in Umm Ruwaba, North Kordofan. The complete liberation of Bahri, situated north of Khartoum, marks a notable victory for the Sudanese Armed Forces. Shortly after liberating the besieged General Command of the armed forces, the SAF reclaimed the remaining occupied parts of Bahri, causing the RSF to retreat to Khartoum. Presently, the eastern neighbourhoods of Bahri, particularly the Kafouri area, are still contested. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) maintain their presence east of the Blue Nile, especially along the river, in East Nile, Umm Dawm, Kafouri, and the towns extending to Rufaa in Gezira State.
With this progress, General Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces are poised to link the General Command forces with those in Omdurman around the Presidential Palace. They may also target the liberation of central Khartoum and the lifting of the siege on the Armoured Corps.
RSF weakened despite support from abroad
Musa Hilal, leader of Sudan's Revolutionary Awakening Council, contends that the RSF is at its weakest point, despite external support from countries like the UAE, Libya, and Chad. He accuses the RSF of being manipulated by external parties and indicates a waning influence of the group. Hilal reports receiving assassination threats from an RSF member and warns of the RSF’s intention to attack his stronghold in Misteriya, North Darfur. He calls on his supporters to stay vigilant and advises families to avoid responding to RSF mobilization efforts.
Hilal's statements suggest that the conflict in Sudan is approaching its end, with the RSF’s power and influence significantly reduced. This perspective highlights the changing dynamics within the region and underscores the ongoing battle for control and stability in Sudan.
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A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
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