The M23 rebel group seeks to gain control over natural resources
The M23 rebel group seeks to gain control over natural resources and establish secure routes for mineral evacuation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Their occupation of Masika, located west of Lubero, underscores their strategic focus on mining regions and access to Lake Edward, enabling a connection to Uganda.
Within 24 hours, M23 captured two strategic zones in the Batangi chiefdom, Lubero territory. Despite being unable to advance towards Kamandi Gite since June 2024, they recently expelled the Wazalendu from Kikuvo and Kamandi without occupying these areas.
On December 19, M23 advanced to Masika, creating a pathway to Bunyatenge and Musigha, both rich in mineral resources. Simultaneously, they attacked a military base in Luofu and advanced towards Luhanga, a stronghold of the FPP/AP. Another faction of M23 pushed the Wazalendu out of Katwa before seizing Kamandi Gite, thereby establishing a direct connection with Uganda.
If M23 manages to take control of Musigha, Bunyatenge, and PitaCongo, they will be able to exploit gold mines and facilitate mineral evacuation through Lake Edward. Their main focusappears to be on dominating mining regions rather than targeting urban centers such as Lubero or Butembo.
M23 already controls access to Lake Edward from Vitshumbi, ensuring supply lines between Kamandi Gite and Kamandi Lac via Virunga National Park. A strategic road that connects M’Bingi to Kamandi Gite and Kamandi lake via Alimbongo and Kirumba.
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A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
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